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NATIONAL SITUATIONER
June, 2007
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Political Environment of the 2007 Elections
The 2007 national and local elections cover the
following positions: one half of the Senate or 12 Senate
positions; at least 215 positions for single-district
representation in the House of Representatives; a
maximum of 53 positions for party-list representation in
the House of Representatives; 81 positions for
provincial governor and vice-governor; more than 750
positions for provincial board members; more than 1,600
positions for mayor, vice-mayor; and more than 13,300
positions for municipal board members.
Among these, the most crucial are the elections for the
single-district and party-list representation in the
House of Representatives. These elections have a
decisive bearing on the burning issue of the legitimacy
of the presidency of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.
If the anti-GMA opposition obtains at least one-third of
the seats in the lower House (estimated to be 80 seats),
it is in a position to push for the impeachment of the
president in the coming 14th Congress. Given a possible
majority of more than two-thirds of the seats in the
Senate, the anti-GMA opposition may well complete the
impeachment process and vote out Ms. Macapagal-Arroyo
from office.
The present political crisis of the presidency stemmed
from controversy surrounding her electoral victory in
the 2004 presidential election and the questions of
credibility of the electoral process and its management
by the Commission on Elections. In a survey issued last
July 2006, the Social Weather Station disclosed the
Commission on Elections has a “very bad” rating of -50%
for insincerity in fighting corruption. The last Pulse
Asia survey on the matter in March 2006 found out that
52% of all Filipinos want the members of the 2004
Commission on Elections to resign.
The 2007 elections are the first national elections
since the questioned 2004 elections. These elections are
being carried out under big clouds of doubt—first, on
the credibility of the election manager; and second, on
the credibility of the electoral process that produced a
controversial and not-yet-settled presidential electoral
result.
The coming elections will be held under somewhat similar
circumstances as in 2004 elections. Three commissioners
in the 2004 elections are still around, including
Chairman Benjamin Abalos, Jr. The same manual electoral
system will be used, despite the approval of RA 9369, a
new electoral modernization law. The government people
cited in the so-called “Garcillano tapes” are not only
still in service but have been promoted to various key
positions within the Commission on Elections, in the
military and in the bureaucracy. The failed attempt to
stop the 2007 election through charter change
initiatives only added suspicion on the credibility of
the coming elections.
Given these circumstances, every citizen is called upon
to guard his or her own vote and ensure that it is
counted.
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