FPJ: Will He Run, Will He Win?
December, 2003

Fernando Poe, Jr. is “Da King” in movie world. However, if some oppositionists would have it, they would want him the king (or president) of the country comes 2004 elections.

FPJ is being touted as a unifying figure of the opposition, acceptable to all groups. His inexperience in public office is actually being promoted as a positive factor in his candidacy, hoping that this can be turned to votes by the vast section of the electorate alienated by corrupt and self-serving traditional politicians.

Will he run? Will he win?

The Anatomy of the Actor-Politician

Movie and other media personalities are attracted to the political arena not only by personal ambitions but also by the demonstrated opportunity for winning a popular election. Media exposure and image buildup, which has become the staple of all candidates for important offices in the information age, is a natural asset of the actor-politician. One might add, so are make-believe promises and public demagoguery a natural talent for a bad actor-politician.

Genuine public service and governance skills are unfortunately only a function of public perception of a candidate’s image. A governor may be good in governance but if the public perceives him or her as corrupt, human rights violator or anti-people, that is the end of his or her candidacy. Conversely, an inept administrator, a gambler, or a womanizer can get elected into office riding a skillful public relations campaign that portrays a pro-people image.

This built-in popularity and good public image of a “bida” media personality places an actor in an enviable position of at least a dark horse or possibly a front-runner in our national elections. The higher the position, face-to-face contact or direct knowledge of a candidate and his qualifications lose their importance—media exposure takes their place as source of voter perception.

This works in an electoral environment where the so-called “market votes,” as differentiated from “command votes,” prevail. The latter are votes already pledged to local political leaders and can be negotiated among politicians. The former are not influenced by local political lords. On a national scale, market votes outnumber command votes, particularly in urbanized areas. It is no coincidence that urbanized areas also constitute the viewer base of the television networks.

In 1994, television commands 56.7 percent viewership as compared to radio’s 80.8 percent. However, it can be conceded that, wherever it reach, TV proved to be a more compelling medium than radio or even printed media.

This was borne out by the number one finish of senators Loren Legarda and Noli de Castro, both ABS-CBN news anchors, in their respective senatorial contests as first-timers. Multimedia, such as movies, television, VCD/DVD, and cable have more capabilities for name recall, image production, and product sale than other types of media. It is no wonder that television garnered 66 percent of the available advertising budget.

The 1995 IPER study of the Filipino voter validated the voter preference for the sikat and popular candidate, more than any other criteria. The study, in turn, was validated by the 1998 presidential election, which saw Joseph Ejercito barging into Malacañang behind his screen name Joseph “Erap” Estrada.

If and when FPJ decides to run, part of the basis of his decision will most likely be his assessment of his popularity with the masses, to the extent that they would vote for him.

To Run Or Not to Run

Even for someone who excels in national surveys, running for presidency of the country is not an easy decision to make. Beyond popularity, one has to factor in several other key factors into the decision. Among these are one’s financial and material resources, the political machinery available for campaign, handling of election irregularities, relations with local political lords and power brokers, and vulnerability to possible electoral issues that may be raised against a candidate.

Popularity may be a major, if not the most important factor, for a presidential candidate. Certainly, it pays to be high on the “name recall” list of the voters. However, as Nora Aunor learned in her ill-fated excursion into local Bicol politics, this is not the be-all and end-all of a political candidacy.

This is particularly true for presidential candidacy. Former senator Raul Roco topped the survey for 1998 presidential race for quite sometime during the early part of the campaign. He lost—a victim of a shortage of resources and limited national campaign machinery. Again, he is high in the national surveys for the 2004 presidential race, but he still has the same handicap.

FPJ would have much the same initial handicap as Roco. In addition he does not have a record of public service in any capacity, unlike Roco and even Estrada. The latter was a mayor and a senator before he became president.

He cannot even be compared to Cory Aquino, the housewife who was thrust upon the national political center stage by Ninoy Aquino’s political assassination. Cory belongs to two political families—the Cojuangcos and Sumulongs and married into the political Aquino family.

FPJ, if and when he decides to run, has no political background to speak of, other than his association with Estrada and the latter’s political friends. The only capital he will bring to the presidential race is his popular standing with the masses. FPJ will be the proverbial babe in the land of the wolves.

This does not mean that FPJ can be discounted in the 2004 presidential elections. As it is, his popularity may be enough to get him through, particularly under a campaign situation of unpopular opponents or a large negative vote against the incumbent president.

However, he will have to solve the problem of resources, machinery, and network. Even the much-vaunted Estrada campaign for the 1998 election entailed a huge resource base, widespread and well-oiled machinery, and extensive network.

A presidential candidate needs to accumulate at least two to three billion peso campaign chest, according to many political analysts. Then he had to form a nationwide coalition of parties and groups. A support network in mass media, business, church and religious groups, military and police, and government also need to be in place.

The scenario where an FPJ candidacy is possible is one where the opposition would need to have a unifying popular figure but not a politically-savvy one. Unification and having a popular candidate are necessary in order to maximize campaign efforts against President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo who will have built-in advantages of being an incumbent. Political innocence translates into a stronger role for advisers in the winner’s governance and larger political and economic profits later.

To do this, both NPC’s Danding Cojuangco and LDP’s Senator Panfilo Lacson, as well as all other possible opposition presidentiables will have to step aside. If they do not do so, then an FPJ candidacy has little chances of coming about.

Three personal factors that may figure in FPJ’s eventual decision are his family’s position, the effect on his movie career, and his friendship with Erap. He would need his family’s public support in a very public, and possibly bruising, campaign. He also will have to assess the consequences and accept his leaving a comfortable career where he reigns. His friendship with Erap is well-known and may tip the balance.

At any rate, an FPJ candidacy will follow the now conventional wisdom in Philippine politics—that of a winnable media figure.

Prospects For An FPJ Presidency

The three-billion peso question, of course, is: will FPJ becomes the next Philippine president?

The answer runs the whole gamut of possibilities. The question is moot and academic if he chooses not to run or if the opposition fails to pick him. If he runs as an independent candidate without the opposition parties and groups behind him, there is only a slim chance that his popularity will be enough to get him into the winning column.

The more interesting scenario is if FPJ runs under a united opposition banner. This translates into two possibilities: one, a mano-a-mano with president GMA as candidate of the dominant coalition and, two, a more dispersed field of presidential candidates.

In a one-on-one situation, where the two sides have major available machineries and resources, FPJ will have an edge in the popularity among the D and E groups of voters. He will also gather votes from anti-GMA voters in the C group. In this case, all other things being equal, there is a clear possibility of an FPJ victory.

However, as more candidates enter the fray, both of them will lose votes. Who will lose more will depend on which side of the electoral issue or issues the people think these other candidates locate themselves.

If these other candidates carry issues like the ones FPJ will carry, then their votes subtract from him. However, if they carry GMA’s issue, then it will be the other way around.

The role of a popular vice-president is not a crucial factor as president GMA herself prove when she failed to raise Speaker Jose de Venecia’s votes against Estrada while running away with the 1998 vice-presidential post.

A so-called “third force” that carries issues against both will find a hard time fending off both and still maintains momentum in the popular mind. It is however conceivable, given the high level of the negative votes in the coming election, that such a third-way presidential candidate can attract enough votes. It would largely depend on the swings of the campaign as voters respond to campaign issues.

Another major factor to consider is the loyalty of local political lords. Since there is a very weak political party system in the Philippines, it is possible for a presidential candidate to raid the political bases of his or her opponent. In the post-martial law Philippine politics, it is a phenomenon that a national candidate will always have local support—at the provincial and town levels—from varied parties and groups including the partymates of his or her opponent.

An FPJ presidency is certainly a possibility. However, he and his fellow oppositionists will have to work very hard for it. Popularity alone will not win him his day in Malacañang.

Prospects of An FPJ Administration

Assuming further that FPJ wins, what are the prospects of his administration? This is a relevant question considering the fate of his friend’s stay in power. Erap failed to sustain the full six years of his term and was unceremoniously booted out after a failed impeachment bid transformed into a spectacular rerun of people power.

Certainly, FPJ and his advisers would have learned their lessons. However, almost certainly, various interests of people in the coalition will rear their heads and attempt to shape the national agenda and policy. All is well and good if these interests coincided with the interests of the whole nation. If not, FPJ will be called upon to make a monumental decision on whether to bend to these interests or to chart a bold one based on his campaign promises.

One of the immediate decisions that an FPJ administration will have to make are the appointments to key government positions—some 14,000 positions, ranging from national to provincial ones requiring presidential approval. The other immediate decision is the handling of lucrative agencies, government corporations, and economic regulatory bodies.

Interests that literally invested in him—providing the billion-peso campaign war chest—expect profit returns on their investment. Power players will expect commensurate roles in the new government.

Potentially, an FPJ administration will have the means to ward off these vested interests. The same mass support that will have provided the winning votes is the same support that can guarantee its strong independence from vested interests. However, it would mean confrontation with the latter.

The odds are that an FPJ administration will be subject to and dependent on internal advice and on external pressure. His very inexperience will work against him. It is a government that will prove very difficult to rise above its advisers.

The business community is already waiting with bated breath an FPJ presidency. Soaring peso exchange rates and stock market fluctuations show a very much disturbed economic sector. Economy, as in the Erap and other previous administrations, is the main challenge of an FPJ government.

Will FPJ prove equal to the challenge? Or more accurately, will his economic advisers be equal to the challenge? Unfortunately for us, the answer cannot be discerned as we go to the polls.